The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of a strengthening El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to bring extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall to various parts of the world. El Nino, a naturally occurring ocean-atmospheric phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean conditions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, emerged in June and is forecast to intensify into a strong El Nino during July and September. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world, said Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General. The strengthening El Nino conditions are likely to have a significant impact on the Indian subcontinent, which is already experiencing a delayed and subdued monsoon season. India experienced its 5th driest June in 126 years, and the monsoon onset has been significantly delayed, with the latest regions covered including New Delhi where the onset was marked on Thursday. The WMO has predicted below-normal rainfall across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and most of Australia.
For India, the period from July to September is crucial as the southwest monsoon season is currently underway, and the actual effects of El Nino will start emerging. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for July, with the country expected to receive about 94 per cent of the Long Period Average for July. As of July 3, the country-wide rainfall deficit was 30 per cent.
The developing El Nino, combined with the warming Indian Ocean, is expected to dampen rainfall over India, with above-normal temperatures predicted for the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
