The Northeastern region of India has recorded a significant deficiency in monsoon rainfall during June, with seven of the eight states experiencing a massive rainfall shortage. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the region as a whole recorded an overall rainfall deficiency of more than 40 per cent during June, the first month of the four-month Southwest monsoon season. Only Sikkim registered slightly excess rainfall during June, receiving 515.9 mm against its normal rainfall of 438.2 mm.
IMD officials attribute the weak monsoon to the absence of active monsoon troughs, the influence of El Nino, and weak rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal. The monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole during July 2026 is likely to remain below normal, less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country during July, based on data for the period 1971-2020, is around 280.4 mm.
Regionally, below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected. Normal rainfall during July is crucial for the ongoing Kharif cropping season, as sowing activities across most parts of the country, including the mountainous Northeastern region, gather momentum during the month. Meghalaya and Manipur recorded ‘Large Deficient (LD)’ rainfall during June, with deficiencies of 74 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
The five other Northeastern states - Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Mizoram, and Tripura - recorded an average rainfall deficiency of around 42 per cent during June. IMD’s Agartala Meteorological Centre Director Partha Roy said that the combined impact of El Nino and other meteorological factors led to deficient rainfall across the country, including the Northeastern region, during June. He added that the Southwest monsoon has remained weak so far, resulting in deficient rainfall, and this climate phenomenon is likely to intensify further in the coming months.
Despite the prevailing El Nino conditions, meteorologists remain optimistic that the Northeastern region would receive adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months, particularly during the peak phase of the season. The four-month Southwest monsoon is vital for the agrarian economy of the Northeastern states, where a large section of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihood. Adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months would not only support Kharif cultivation but also help replenish rivers, reservoirs and groundwater resources, besides improving overall environmental conditions and ensuring water security across the region.
